(All times are Helsinki times)
- 11:00-13:00: Invited session Are epidemic models good for prediction? (Zoom link: NBBC21 main)
- Organiser and chair: Frank Ball, University of Nottingham, UK
- Speaker 1: Kari Auranen, University of Turku, Finland. Social contacts and contact tracing as modulators
- Speaker 2: Tom Britton, Stockholm University, Sweden. Evaluating and optimizing COVID-19 vaccination policy
- Speaker 3: Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, University of Oslo, Norway. Forcasting the covid-19 epidemic in Norway
- Discussant: Thomas House, University of Manchester, UK
- 13:00-15:30: Break
- 15:30-17:30: Parallel contributed session “Food safety” and “Spatiotemporal modelling”, Chair: Jarno Vanhatalo, University of Helsinki, Finland (20 minutes for each talk) (Zoom link: NBBC21 Contributed 1)
- Ullrika Sahlin. Bayesian inference distinguishing variability from uncertainty 2D Monte Carlo simulations, 2D distributions and 2D sensitivity analysis
- Jukka Ranta et al. BIKE
- Lihan Huang. One-step dynamic inverse analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation of microbial growth in foods
- Ursula Gonzales-Barron et al. A meta-analytical Bigelow predictive microbiology model describing the effects of temperature, pH and oBrix on the thermal resistance of Neosartorya spp. in fruit juices
- Jarno Vanhatalo. Bayesian model based spatiotemporal survey designs and partially observed log Gaussian Cox process
- Øystein Sørensen et al. Longitudinal modeling of age-dependent latent traits with generalized additive latent and mixed models
- 15:30-17:30: Parallel contributed session “Epidemiology and public health”, Chair: Audronė Jakaitienė, Vilnius University, Lithuania (20 minutes for each talk) (Zoom link: NBBC21 Contributed 2)
- Naomi Azulay et al. Altered heart rate variability is related to the number of metabolic syndrome factors and manifest diabetes: the Tromsø study
- Essi Syrjälä et al. Modeling the association between growth-based pubertal onset and the development of type 1 diabetes
- Vasco Cadavez et al. Meta-analysis on risk factors for human sporadic giardiasis
- Mikhail Shubin. Bayesian framework for forecasting an ongoing epidemic: using several models simultaneously
- Ramunė Vaišnorė et al. Functional pathways analysis for COVID-19 modelling: exploring Lithuanian data.
- 17:30-18:00: Break
- 18:00-19:00: Chair Elja Arjas, University of Helsinki, Finland (Zoom link: NBBC21 main)
- Keynote speech Persi Diaconis, Stanford University, USA: Approximate Exchangeability and deFINETTI Priors in 2021 (Click here to download slides)
